Conflict resolution costs measured by Mass Arrest Numbers and (Serial) War Dead

 

Globally-effective Civil Disobedience Actions, Ranked by Mass Numbers Arrested

     

         2015

  16,000

Ferguson, Missouri, arrest warrants over racialized U.S. Supreme Court rulings dating from 1896.

         2014

    4,000

Barcelona protesters arrested over housing & “austerity” issues.

         2011

    1,200

Keystone XL oil pipeline protesters arrested encircling U.S. White House.

         2011

       700

New York City “Occupy Wall Street” Brooklyn Bridge protesters arrested.

         2010

       900

Toronto G20 hegemony protesters arrested.

         2011

       700

Washington DC World Bank-IMF hegemony protesters arrested.

         2006

    1,200

Faslane Scotland Trident (planet killer) submarine protesters arrested.

         2004

    2,000

New York City Republican National Convention protesters & cyclists arrested.

         1993

       900

Anti-West Canada “Clayoquot” clear-cutting protesters arrested for blockading.

         1987

  25,000

First Palestinian Intifada protester’s homes “arrested” at any given time.

         1985

    5,000

Cruise Missiles (Greenham Commons Women) arrests annually, against NATO.

         1984

    5,000

Cruise Missiles (Greenham Commons Women) arrests annually, against NATO.

         1983

    5,000

Cruise Missiles (Greenham Commons Women) arrests annually, against NATO.

         1982

    5,000

Cruise Missiles (Greenham Commons Women) arrests annually, against NATO.

         1977

    2,000

Diablo Canyon “Abalone” protesters arrested around nuclear power plant site.

         1977

    3,000

Japanese protesters against Japan getting the Bomb, via U.S. bases; Some sent to Green Island.

         1977

    1,500

Seabrook “Clamshell” protesters arrested around nuclear plant site.

         1976

   1,000s

Anti-apartheid South Africans arrested; 575 killed along with Steve Biko.

         1971

  12,000

Anti-U.S.–Vietnam war protesters arrested blockading Capitol Grounds and area freeways.

         1971

  10,000

Seabrook “Clamshell” protesters arrested around nuclear plant site.

         1970

       500

Canadian “October Crisis” protesters of martial law arrested.

         1969

  30,000

German Ruhr affinity group protesters arrested around nuclear plant site.

         1967

   1,000s

“Flower Power” Pentagon protesters arrested; (Daisy-stemming gun barrels).

         1964

       400

U-CA Berkeley students arrested over U.S. SE-Asian wars.

         1963

  15,000

Birmingham AL civil rights protesters arrested, locally-nationally.

         1963

    1,400

South Vietnam Buddhists protest U.S. occupation of Vietnam; Many killed.

       1960s

  34,000

War resisters protesters arrested, included burning of U.S. military draft cards.

         1960

    3,600

Racial desegregation lunch counter sit-in protesters arrested.

       1930s

100,000+

Gandhian Salt Marchers (recorded out of millions of protesters) arrested.

 

War Dead (Death Data of Population Concerned) Percentages
as Indicators of Conflict Intensity and Conflict Resolution Potential

(Beyond Current Statistical Indicators such as Life Expectancy or Infant Mortality Rates)

  • 75-100 million in the early Euro–“Conquest” of the Americas
  • 60 million in the Euro–African–Americas Slavery Time
  • 50 million in 1940s European Wars
  • 8 million in the U.S.–South-East Asia Drug Wars
  • 4 million in Euro-African Apartheid
  • 3 million in Oil Gulf & Horn of Africa Wars (not counting age 0–5)
  • Floods & Earthquakes up to 4 million (China, Middle-East, and North–Baltic Seas, historically, so far)

Sources include in-process Nonviolence 101 Manual, by Author & https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_arrest; See also , e.g., Nathan Robinson, “Shocking Finding From the DOJ’s Ferguson Report that Nobody has Noticed,” 2015 March 3, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nathan-robinson/the-shocking-finding-from-the-doj-ferguson_b_6858388.html; and Ellis & Hicken, “One Year Later: Ferguson is still Pumping-out Arrest Warrants,” @CNNMoney, 2015 August 6, http://money.cnn.com/2015/08/06/news/ferguson-arrest-warrants/: “outstanding arrest warrants as of the end of last year [2014], equivalent to around 75% of the town's population.” See also ‘Disobedience 2014’: Mass Protest Calls for an End to Austerity in Spain,” https://www.rt.com/news/protest-spain-disobedience-barcelona-185/; http://www.lawyersagainstthewar.org/letters/disobedience.pdf; http://civilresistance.info/sites/default/files/Civil%20Resistance%20-%20Randle1994.pdf; https://peopleandplanet.org/dl/student_divestment_workshop.pdf; http://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/sg10.pdf; http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/g8-g20/news/g20-related-mass-arrests-unique-in-canadian-history/article1621198/; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friends_of_Clayoquot_Sound; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abalone_Alliance#cite_note-dp-2; http://newint.org/features/2008/06/01/direct-action/; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clamshell_Alliance; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_arrest; http://newint.org/features/web-exclusive/2014/01/17/martin-luther-king-nonviolence/; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opposition_to_United_States_involvement_in_the_Vietnam_War#Polarization; http://www.nwtrcc.org/PDFs/HistoricCDActions.pdf; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Examples_of_civil_disobedience; & http://newint.org/features/web-exclusive/2014/10/14/how-did-gandhi-win/. For war dead dBases #s and %s, see, for instance, http://www.sipri.org/databases; http://www.brad.ac.uk/acad/peace/resgroups/resgroup.htm; http://www.peacenews.info/events/index.php; http://rrojasdatabank.info/agfrank/; http://pweb.sophia.ac.jp/~k-inoguc/4Conflict.PDF (Japanese Character Overlay); and https://www.popularresistance.org/us-has-killed-more-than-20-million-in-37-nations-since-wwii/.

Serial war dead violence rates measure relative violence–nonviolence — the higher the serial violence, (& dialectical vengeance feuds), the lower the potential for peaceful mediation.  For instance, from 1945 to 1990 — ranked on an overall bar graph spectrum of nation states —

Under 1% War Dead Cuba (1952…), Chile & Argentina (1973…), Israel–Palestine (1948…);
2% War Dead Algeria (1945…), Iran (1946…), Iraq (1961…), Colombia (1948…), Guatemala (1954…), Afghanistan (1978…), El Salvador (1969…), & Yemen (1948…);
4% War Dead Uganda (1964…) & Nicaragua (1945…); and­
Over 5% War Dead Laos (1945-76), Lebanon (1958…), Vietnam (1946-76), Kampuchea (1965-76),& North Korea (1950…)

Costa Rica (1948-1990) experienced the lower side of a spectrum, along with Cuba (1952-1990), Chile[i] (1973-1989), and Israel (1948-present), all under 1% — (Bar D below); illustrated below.  Meanwhile, Algeria (1945-1965), Iran (1946-present ), Iraq (1961-present), Colombia (1948-1990), Guatemala (1954-1990), Afghanistan (1978-present), El Salvador (1969-1990), and Yemen (1948-present), rank along this spectrum at 2% dead or lower (Bar C).  In the meantime, Uganda (1964-1984) and Nicaragua (1945-1990), at 4% (Bar B), extend higher.  Finally, Laos (1945-1990), Lebanon (1958-present), Vietnam (1945-1990), Kampuchea (1965-1990), and North Korea (1950-present), experienced serial violence levels, at 5%, or more, (Bar A).

            In effect nation states in bioregional conflict zones can manifest a serial violence vortex spectrum with rates 5% or higher; Bars A & B represent a higher potential for intractable wars or militarized arms & drug business to fund those wars, and, so, a lower potential for peaceful conflict resolution; (Laos, Lebanon, Vietnam, Uganda, Kampuchea, Nicaragua, and North Korea).  Notably, Bars C & D include Israeli (counted) and Iraqi & Palestinian (often uncounted) demographics, as well as de facto Palestinian nonviolence campaigs, often restraining Israel by nonviolent conflict, in many Intifadas.  Cuba may have lost relatively fewer people by war deaths than Costa Rica, but has also lost about 10% of its people as refugees, after 1959 to Miami and Caracas, for economic & political reasons, (including a U.S. blockade).  Costa Rica, (with 2,000 registered war deaths since 1945), represents an anomalous demilitarized state, despite its geopolitical location — relatively-nonviolently anchoring perhaps the world’s historically most violent global war dead zone.  See Bar Graph 1: Serial Violence Percentages, By State, below:

 

Bar Graph 1:  Serial Violence Percentages, By State

 

(A)       Laos, Lebanon, Vietnam                                          

            Germany, & Kampuchea        oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

 

(B)       Iraq, North Korea                                                                                            

            Uganda, Nicaragua                 oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

 

(C)       Afghanistan, Yemen,

Guatemala, El Salvador               

            Iran, Algeria, Colombia          ooooooooooo

   

(D)       Iraq; Israel (Palestine data?)

Chile, Cuba, Costa Rica          oo

                                                                                                            

                                                            0          1         2         3         4         5-10  Percent

   Decreasing Potential for Success in Conflict Resolution as Serial Violence Increases from (D) to (A)

 

 

            Over all, the four global conflict zones registered an estimated 60–95% of Third World war deaths from 1945 to 1990 — or over two-thirds of post-1945 war dead events.  Demographically, since 1945, a fifth of the world’s people, in the four global war zones, experienced wars & war deaths two or three times more frequently than elsewhere.[ii]  Post-1945 threats to planetary civilization almost reached omnicidal levels early in the 1960s, after 8 of 14 U.S. NSC members nearly-voted to “nuke” Russia, (& everyone else), over Cuban sovereignty, potentially worse than Chernobyl & Fukushima crises.[iii]



[i] At 10-15 years in length, the wars in both Chile & Afghanistan lack the 20 years in duration necessary to qualify as serial.  They are included for reference purposes, since these events — and other highly publicized “wars” like the Israeli conflict and the invasion of Hungary & Czechoslavakia — measure much lower on this spectrum than might be expected (e.g., Israel) or too low to be measured (Hungary & Czechoslovakia).  The numbers which are relevant are the percentages, not the serendipitous synchronicity of wars since 1945.

[ii] Istvan Kende, “Wars of Ten Years,” Journal of Peace Research [JCR] 15 (1978): 239-41; & Gérard Chaliand, Strategic Atlas, A Comparative Geopolitics of the World’s Powers, trans. by Tony Berrett, maps by Catherine Petie (NYC: Harper & Row, 1985), 48-50.  For world population numbers, see Population Reference Bureau, “1985 Population Data Sheet of the Population Reference Bureau,” Washington, D.C., 1985; as well as U.N., World Population Prospects, Estimates & Projections as Assessed in 1984 (NYC: U.N., 1986).  These figures concern 1945‑1985 in particular.  Please see also Appendix B.

[iii] Marcus Raskin, Being & Doing (NYC: Random House, 1971), xiii & 63.  Raskin observed the vote as a White House aide in the U.S. NSC during that crisis.  Percentages dead in 1913-1919 Germany may have ranged around 10% dead, Iraq in U.S. Gulf Wars, 5%; PSR, IPPNW-DE, Body Count, Casualty Figures after 10 Years of the “War on Terror” (2015), http://www.psr.org/assets/pdfs/body-count.pdf.   The so-called Cold War split both Germany & Vietnam, but Germany rebuilt through a U.S.-funded Marshall Plan; While Hamburg did not become the world’s large sea port, as it might have done twice.  Korea, although one country overy 6,000 years, and the so-called Low Countries, latter split by Napoleon during bloody wars, still remain separate nation-states.

 

(See geographic genre of, e.g., Istvan Kende, Támas Szentes, Gérard Chaliand, and W.E.B. duBois, among others, as well as atlases in revision on trends and patterns in print.)